According to The Kobeissi Letter on Twitter, Q1 2025 US GDP growth expectations on the prediction market Kalshi have officially turned negative, now at -0.4%. This signals the possibility of the first US GDP contraction since Q2 2022, which could drive increased volatility in equities, forex, and crypto markets as traders adjust to recession risk (Source: @KobeissiLetter via Twitter, April 29, 2025). Monitoring economic indicators and risk assets is crucial for trading strategies amid this macroeconomic shift.

According to The Kobeissi Letter, prediction market Kalshi has shifted its Q1 2025 US GDP growth expectations to -0.4%, marking the first projected contraction since Q2 2022 (source: @KobeissiLetter, Apr 29, 2025). This negative outlook may increase volatility across US indices such as S&P 500 and Nasdaq, potentially triggering risk-off sentiment among traders. Sectors sensitive to macro downturns, including banking and consumer discretionary, could experience increased selling pressure. Crypto traders should monitor for correlated downside in Bitcoin and other major digital assets, as macroeconomic contraction tends to reduce overall market risk appetite (source: Kalshi, @KobeissiLetter).