According to @StockMKTNewz, Kalshi prediction markets currently assign the highest probability to the S&P 500 closing the year between 6,800 and 6,999.99, implying a 2.04%-5.03% gain from current levels at the time of the post (source: @StockMKTNewz; Kalshi market data). For trading, the 6,800-7,000 year-end band is the market-implied base case to watch for equity positioning and risk management, which cross-asset traders can monitor alongside crypto market sentiment in BTC and ETH (source: @StockMKTNewz; Kalshi market data).

According to @KobeissiLetter, El Salvador President Nayib Bukele referenced a Kalshi market asking when the country’s Bitcoin holdings would hit $1 billion and replied, "I could do the funniest thing right now," which @KobeissiLetter interprets as a hint at additional BTC purchases (source: @KobeissiLetter). For traders, the explicit focus on a $1B holdings milestone and the purchase hint flag potential near-term sovereign buy-side interest in BTC and headline-sensitive price action (source: @KobeissiLetter).

According to @KobeissiLetter citing data from @Kalshi, prediction markets now place the median expectation for Bitcoin's price at $124,000 in 2025. This projection suggests a potential 24% upside from current levels, with Bitcoin already up over 30% from its recent lows. The ongoing trade war appears to be fueling bullish sentiment in the crypto market, increasing demand and volatility for Bitcoin as investors seek alternatives to traditional assets (source: @KobeissiLetter, @Kalshi). Traders should monitor macroeconomic developments and prediction market trends for actionable opportunities.

According to The Kobeissi Letter on Twitter, Q1 2025 US GDP growth expectations on the prediction market Kalshi have officially turned negative, now at -0.4%. This signals the possibility of the first US GDP contraction since Q2 2022, which could drive increased volatility in equities, forex, and crypto markets as traders adjust to recession risk (Source: @KobeissiLetter via Twitter, April 29, 2025). Monitoring economic indicators and risk assets is crucial for trading strategies amid this macroeconomic shift.

According to The Kobeissi Letter, prediction market Kalshi has shifted its Q1 2025 US GDP growth expectations to -0.4%, marking the first projected contraction since Q2 2022 (source: @KobeissiLetter, Apr 29, 2025). This negative outlook may increase volatility across US indices such as S&P 500 and Nasdaq, potentially triggering risk-off sentiment among traders. Sectors sensitive to macro downturns, including banking and consumer discretionary, could experience increased selling pressure. Crypto traders should monitor for correlated downside in Bitcoin and other major digital assets, as macroeconomic contraction tends to reduce overall market risk appetite (source: Kalshi, @KobeissiLetter).